He had the sixth-best sack rate under pressure among passers with 60-plus attempts. His under-pressure metrics in 2022 were far better than they were in 20.Ĭarr ranked ninth in the NFL in ANY/A under pressure in 2022. The good news here for Carr is that the end does not appear to be nigh: Derek Carr Year-by-Year Pressure StatsĬarr cut his sack rate despite a revolving-door offensive line and without sacrificing too much else statistically. When the end is nigh, the aging quarterback runs out of compensation strategies, and his pressure stats fall apart: Matt Ryan was a prime example last year, and Tom Brady was starting to drive the same highway. Derek Carr Under PressureĪ veteran quarterback's stats when pressured might not deteriorate immediately, but you would expect them to change as he ages.Ī wily veteran-the type teams courting Carr are hoping to acquire-might trade sacks for throwaways and checkdowns, increasing his completion rate and lowering his sack rate but taking something off his yards per attempt. Teams are looking for an instant upgrade from a veteran quarterback, not a "getting to know you" year. But think for a moment about how those factors will impact Carr on a new team. There are mitigating factors, of course: the collapse of the Raiders' interior offensive line, Darren Waller's injury (Waller caught lots of 15- to 20-yard passes in the past), lack of early-season timing with Adams, McDaniels' McDanielsness. That's still fine, but slippage would be a big problem for Carr's next team.Ĭarr's deep-passing decline in 2022 is a troubling sign for would-be suitors. Carr's 10.9 ANY/A ranked 17th in the NFL among passers with 50 or more 16-plus-yard attempts. He became one of the best deep passers in the NFL in 20, however, despite lacking a top-tier WR1 and Gruden's West Coast Offense predilections (and 2021 midseason departure).Ĭarr got McDaniels and his college chum Adams in 2022, yet he posted his worst deep-ball numbers since 2017. Here are Carr's deep passing stats for every season dating back to 2015, his second year in the NFL: Derek Carr Year-by-Year Deep Passing StatsĬarr had a well-deserved rep as a dink-and-dunk guy in the late 2010s, as his low attempt figures and meh rate stats on deep passes suggest in the table above. A truly savvy quarterback could compensate for years, but one of the questions we are trying to answer is whether Carr is a truly savvy quarterback. You would expect an aging quarterback to slowly decline as a deep passer as he starts to age: his attempts drop (can't manage the pocket quite as long as he used to), his completion rate drops, his interceptions increase. Let's start with deep (over 15 air yards) passes. So what does Carr really have left to offer the Jets, Saints, or anyone else? Let's sift through some data. But factors such as the arrival of Davante Adams suggest that things should have gotten a little better, not worse, for Carr in 2022. But his DVOA and DYAR have gone down every year since 2019, and other metrics ( Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt at Pro Football Reference, NFL passer rating) have declined in two straight years.Ĭarr's drop in performance could be attributed to the Jon Gruden implosion, Mike Mayock's malpractice, and Josh McDaniels' uninspiring Raiders debut. Yet he only turns 32 in March.Ĭarr should still be in his prime, with a few years to go before any significant age-related decline. He has been roughly the NFL's 10th- to 20th-best quarterback on its 12th- to 24th-best team for two presidential administrations. His third-place MVP finish was way back in 2016. At the moment, sheer availability makes Carr the most interesting quarterback in the NFL who is not sitting in a darkened room picking lint from his navel while listening to Joy Division's back catalog on high rotation and calling it a "retreat."Ĭarr has also spent many years in a time bubble. The Saints, in desperate need of financial intervention, are also interested in Carr. The Jets are pursuing him in their quest for a quarterback who doesn't claim that the dog ate his homework. His Raiders bosses were bigger personalities than Carr, but they were generally content to extend his contracts, plug him into a mid-tier offense, and sow their chaos elsewhere. Carr spent nearly a decade in a well-worn rut of quasi-relevance: too effective for the Raiders to trade or release, not nearly accomplished enough for "elite quarterback" talk-show prattle, and never interesting enough to roast for yuks and profit. NFL Offseason - It feels strange to care about Derek Carr at this time of year.įrankly, it feels a bit strange to care about Carr at all.
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